CRIMEA COULD BECOME A UKRAINIAN KOSOVO

Maria Rogacheva
IZVESTIA
April 26, 2006

The summer vacation is not far away. As in the past, many Russians will
opt for the traditional break in the Crimea. But with each passing year the
treatment of Russian tourists and, indeed, of Russian-speaking
Crimeans changes. More and more one hears calls by Crimean Tatars, whose
numbers are growing all the time, to rid the peninsula not only of
Russians, but also of Ukrainians and other nationalities. Whereas
before this dispute appeared local and not impinging on the bulk of the
population, now even the most apolitical holidaymaker might sense
people looking at him askance. It is conceivable that the Ukrainian
authorities' tactics of using Crimean Tatars as a counterweight to the
Russian-speaking population will turn into a disaster for the Ukraine

itself and lead to the development of a so-called Kosovo scenario

on the peninsula.

The dispute between the Crimean Tatars and the rest of the Crimean
population has been bubbling under for 15 years -- ever since the first
members of this deported people started to return to the peninsula in
the early nineties. They came in small groups and settled mainly in
Bakhchiseray. The locals welcomed them more or less with open arms. The
return was seen as righting a historic wrong and as a sign of the
general democratization of society. Later, when the Crimea was inherited by
the Ukraine, which had suddenly became a sovereign country, the

process speeded up significantly. The authorities were hoping to use Crimean

Tatars as a counterweight to pro-Russian sentiments. The more Tatars there

are in the Crimea, Kiev reckoned, the harder it will be for Russian separatists to
make a mark.

The number of Crimean Tatars in the Crimea is rising very fast. In 1944
half a million people were deported; 250,000 have already returned. This is
one-tenth of the Crimean population. This year, according to Aleksey
Dobychin, leader of the Proryv public movement, which protects the
interests of the Russian-speaking population in the Crimea, another 100,000
Crimean Tatars are expected to return. They will buy up houses, take
over plots of land, and built settlements all over the peninsula -- from
Yevpatoriya to Kerch. According to specialists, in five years' time the
Crimean Tatars may constitute 40 percent of the peninsula's population.

From the outset the Ukrainian authorities gave the returnees' every
help. In the first four years more than 60 percent of the returning Crimean
Tatars were found jobs, pensioners were given pension top-ups, special
college departments and Tatar schools were opened. It is no
exaggeration to say that this policy may cost the Ukraine the Crimea.

"In the Ukraine the danger of losing the island due to the increasing
influence of the Crimean Tatars is seen as minor," State Duma Deputy

Konstantin Zatulin, director of the CIS Institute, told Izvestiya. "But the
latter's demands are growing year by year. I believe that a new Kosovo is

being nurtured in the Ukraine's midst.These days you can hear the "Crimea

For Crimeans Tatars" slogan not only in remote villages, but even on the

streets of Sevastopol -- a city traditionally close to Russia."They are

actually saying to Russians: Run while you can," Aleksey Dobychin said

to Izvestiya, "all this is going to be ours anyway, they say, and you

won't be living here." The Crimean Tatars unifying structure is the mejlis --

an unregistered, but currently highly influential body. Mejlis members have

repeatedly hinted that sooner or later they will demand Tatar autonomy

status for the Crimea. It is no secret to anyone in the autonomous

entity that amid the apparently harmless propaganda of Crimean Tatar

unity, strong-arm detachments are being set up, comprising adherents

of radical Islamic movements. Their members publicly advocate Crimean

independence from Kiev and call for
"jihad."

"Crimean Tatar organizations operate in two areas," Aleksey Dobychin
said. "On the one hand, the mejlis, which cultivates nationalist sentiments.
It is not concerned with religion. On the other hand, the Hizb-ut-Tahrir
Islamic liberation party, which is banned in Russia and a number of
other countries. Its members appeared in the Crimea in 2003 and

they have been recruiting supporters ever since. This is done in the

actual mosques. Hizb-ut-Tahrir never advertises itself, but it is already

at work in every district. It is no secret -- the Crimean mufti has publicly

declared that there are around 30 Wahhabite groups on the peninsula.

With weapons and shooting ranges. They conduct exercises in urban fighting

and they are trained by Turkish, Jordanian, Moroccan, and Chechen instructors.

To our knowledge, the organization receives major financial backing from

Saudi Arabia, Oman, and, of course, Turkey.

The mejlis has found its close allies in Turkey. According to the
Institute of Geopolitics Crimean Center for Humanitarian Studies,
Crimean Tatar representatives regularly attend various events and forums

of a pan-Turkic nature. Ankara has repeatedly talked of Crimean Tatars who
allegedly moved to Turkey during the Russian-Turkish wars. According to
Turkish studies, they number two-three million in 34 Turkish districts.
Many are openly interested in moving to their "historic homeland," so
this might finally tip the balance of power in the Black Sea Region.

Maybe holidaymakers coming to the Crimea this year will not sense all these
undercurrents. One cannot exactly expect widespread nationalist actions
and ultimatums in the immediate future. But, according to Aleksey Dobychin,

the situation is irreversible and a Kosovo scenario could develop in two-three

years. And the strong-arm option is most likely, since it will not be possible

to secure a political decision on the peninsula's becoming a
separate entity. But the boil is swelling, so it will burst sooner or
later. It is hard to predict how much blood will flow on the fecund
Crimean soil.