CRIMEA COULD BECOME A UKRAINIAN KOSOVO

Maria Rogacheva
IZVESTIA
April 26, 2006

The summer vacation is not far away. As in the past, many Russians will
opt for the traditional break in the Crimea. But with each passing year the
treatment of Russian tourists and, indeed, of Russian-speaking
Crimeans changes. More and more one hears calls by Crimean Tatars, whose
numbers are growing all the time, to rid the peninsula not only of
Russians, but also of Ukrainians and other nationalities. Whereas
before this dispute appeared local and not impinging on the bulk of the
population, now even the most apolitical holidaymaker might sense
people looking at him askance. It is conceivable that the Ukrainian
authorities' tactics of using Crimean Tatars as a counterweight to the
Russian-speaking population will turn into a disaster for the Ukraine

itself and lead to the development of a so-called Kosovo scenario

on the peninsula.

The dispute between the Crimean Tatars and the rest of the Crimean
population has been bubbling under for 15 years -- ever since the first
members of this deported people started to return to the peninsula in
the early nineties. They came in small groups and settled mainly in
Bakhchiseray. The locals welcomed them more or less with open arms. The
return was seen as righting a historic wrong and as a sign of the
general democratization of society. Later, when the Crimea was inherited by
the Ukraine, which had suddenly became a sovereign country, the

process speeded up significantly. The authorities were hoping to use Crimean

Tatars as a counterweight to pro-Russian sentiments. The more Tatars there

are in the Crimea, Kiev reckoned, the harder it will be for Russian separatists to
make a mark.

The number of Crimean Tatars in the Crimea is rising very fast. In 1944
half a million people were deported; 250,000 have already returned. This is
one-tenth of the Crimean population. This year, according to Aleksey
Dobychin, leader of the Proryv public movement, which protects the
interests of the Russian-speaking population in the Crimea, another 100,000
Crimean Tatars are expected to return. They will buy up houses, take
over plots of land, and built settlements all over the peninsula -- from
Yevpatoriya to Kerch. According to specialists, in five years' time the
Crimean Tatars may constitute 40 percent of the peninsula's population.

From the outset the Ukrainian authorities gave the returnees' every
help. In the first four years more than 60 percent of the returning Crimean
Tatars were found jobs, pensioners were given pension top-ups, special
college departments and Tatar schools were opened. It is no
exaggeration to say that this policy may cost the Ukraine the Crimea.

"In the Ukraine the danger of losing the island due to the increasing
influence of the Crimean Tatars is seen as minor," State Duma Deputy

Konstantin Zatulin, director of the CIS Institute, told Izvestiya. "But the
latter's demands are growing year by year. I believe that a new Kosovo is

being nurtured in the Ukraine's midst.These days you can hear the "Crimea

For Crimeans Tatars" slogan not only in remote villages, but even on the

streets of Sevastopol -- a city traditionally close to Russia."They are

actually saying to Russians: Run while you can," Aleksey Dobychin said

to Izvestiya, "all this is going to be ours anyway, they say, and you

won't be living here." The Crimean Tatars unifying structure is the mejlis --

an unregistered, but currently highly influential body. Mejlis members have

repeatedly hinted that sooner or later they will demand Tatar autonomy

status for the Crimea. It is no secret to anyone in the autonomous

entity that amid the apparently harmless propaganda of Crimean Tatar

unity, strong-arm detachments are being set up, comprising adherents

of radical Islamic movements. Their members publicly advocate Crimean

independence from Kiev and call for
"jihad."

"Crimean Tatar organizations operate in two areas," Aleksey Dobychin
said. "On the one hand, the mejlis, which cultivates nationalist sentiments.
It is not concerned with religion. On the other hand, the Hizb-ut-Tahrir
Islamic liberation party, which is banned in Russia and a number of
other countries. Its members appeared in the Crimea in 2003 and

they have been recruiting supporters ever since. This is done in the

actual mosques. Hizb-ut-Tahrir never advertises itself, but it is already

at work in every district. It is no secret -- the Crimean mufti has publicly

declared that there are around 30 Wahhabite groups on the peninsula.

With weapons and shooting ranges. They conduct exercises in urban fighting

and they are trained by Turkish, Jordanian, Moroccan, and Chechen instructors.

To our knowledge, the organization receives major financial backing from

Saudi Arabia, Oman, and, of course, Turkey.

The mejlis has found its close allies in Turkey. According to the
Institute of Geopolitics Crimean Center for Humanitarian Studies,
Crimean Tatar representatives regularly attend various events and forums

of a pan-Turkic nature. Ankara has repeatedly talked of Crimean Tatars who
allegedly moved to Turkey during the Russian-Turkish wars. According to
Turkish studies, they number two-three million in 34 Turkish districts.
Many are openly interested in moving to their "historic homeland," so
this might finally tip the balance of power in the Black Sea Region.

Maybe holidaymakers coming to the Crimea this year will not sense all these
undercurrents. One cannot exactly expect widespread nationalist actions
and ultimatums in the immediate future. But, according to Aleksey Dobychin,

the situation is irreversible and a Kosovo scenario could develop in two-three

years. And the strong-arm option is most likely, since it will not be possible

to secure a political decision on the peninsula's becoming a
separate entity. But the boil is swelling, so it will burst sooner or
later. It is hard to predict how much blood will flow on the fecund
Crimean soil.

JOURNALIST DETAINED IN KIEV

The New Region information agency correspondent in Kiev was arrested by the militia. Thursday. Valery Miasnikov was stopped near a metro station and forced into the militia car. The militiamen drove him to the station for interrogation. They ignored the recently introduced rule to inform an arrested individual about his or her rights. The cops also ridiculed Mr. Miasnikov’s demand to contact a lawyer. The interrogator refused to answer the journalist’s question about reasons for his arrest. He inquired about the New Region Agency, its financial forces, structure and supporters among political forces in the Ukraine. After the interrogation Valery Miasnikov was released. The New Region based in Moscow is going to protest against his illegal detention. It seems that the Ukrainian regime is embarking on a campaign of intimidation to force Ukrainian citizens working for the New Region to quit their jobs. The New Region is the only Russian information agency that questions the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state and its occupation of the Crimea.

ALEXEI DOBYCHIN: CRIMEA UNDER THREAT OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS

Moscow, April 25, 2006 Interfax - Crimean Tatars in their struggle for the independence of the peninsula tend to fall under an ever stronger influence of semi-religious extremist ideas, Aleksey Dobychin, leader of Proryv (breakthrough - IF) public association.

'Crimean Tatar organizations have operated in two areas: on the one hand, there is Mejlis, which cultivates nationalistic sentiments. It does not involve religion. On the other hand, there is Hizb ut-Tahrir, an Islamic liberation party, which is banned in Russia and some other countries', Dobychin said as cited by Izvestia daily on Monday.

It is no secret in the autonomy, the newspaper writes, that 'along with the seemingly harmless propaganda of the unity of the Crimean Tatars', forces are formed in their midst from among adherents of radical Islamic movements whose activists have openly urged for the independence of the Crimea from Kiev and for 'jihad'.

According to Dobychin, who advocates the interests of the Russian-speaking population in the Crimea, Hizb ut-Tahrir people appeared in the Crimea in 2003 and have been engaged in recruiting supporters ever since.

'They do it right in mosques. Hizb ut-Tahrir is advertised nowhere but it is already working in every district. Nobody conceals this. The Crimea mufti has openly stated that there are about 30 Wahhabi groups in the peninsula, with weapons and shooting-grounds. They have conducted exercises for urban operations, being trained by Turkish, Jordanian, Moroccan and Chechen instructors', Dobychin says.

In his opinion, the situation is irreversible, and a Kosovo-like scenario can be launched in a two or three year's time. A violent version is most probable at that, since a political solution for the separation of the peninsula will not work, he believes.

UKRAINIAN COUPLE SPIED FOR POLAND

Secretary of the SBU* Press Service in the Volyn region (North -West of the Ukraine) Galina Savinskaya said that two Ukrainian citizens Mr and Mrs Oleg Gryzhenko had been sentenced to four and a half years in jail for selling Ukrainian military secrets to Poland. Major Gryzhenko and his wife Ludmila were caught red-handed when turning over sensitive defence information to foreign agents. According to Ms. Savinskaya the Gryzhenkos’ activity could seriously damage the Ukraine’s defence capability. She did not provide any details.The couple had been enrolled by the Polish military intelligence, Savinskaya said. They had been gathering both military and other confidential information for Polish intelligence officers in exchange for money. The Ukrainian propaganda is downplaying the spy scandal. Poland is posing as a friend of the Ukraine. The regime in Warsaw promised to support the Ukrainian membership in NATO and the EU.

*SBU – Security Service of the Ukraine (Sluzhba Bezpeki Ukrainy)

“FAIR” AND “HONEST” UKRAINIAN ELECTIONS

Ukraine parliament to consider calls for vote recount

KIEV, April 3, 2006 (AFP) - Ukraine's outgoing parliament will consider calls for recounting ballots from the March 26 legislative elections at its session on Tuesday, officials said.
Deputy speaker Adam Martynyuk told Ukrainian television on Monday that lawmakers will consider appeals that preliminary election results were marred by irregularities during the ballot counting process.

President Viktor Yushchenko, who is expected to attend Tuesday's session, has come out in favor of recounts at polling stations where law enforcement authorities determined irregularities to have occurred.
A full recount would drag out ongoing negotiations in Kiev over forming the new government.
Ukraine's top election monitoring group, the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, warned that a decision to recount all ballots from the election "will be yet another step toward annulling the election results and perhaps to dissolving parliament."
It said that while irregularities were recorded during the ballot count, they were not enough to affect the results of the election that Western and domestic observers said was free and fair.
According to preliminary election results, five parties made it into the Upper Rada legislature following the March 26 ballot.
The pro-Russian opposition Regions Party got the top spot with 32 percent of the vote, followed by "orange revolution" heroine Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc with 22 percent, and Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc with 14 percent.
The Socialists and the Communists received six and four percent, respectively. Official election results are due to be published by April 10. About half a dozen parties that failed to get three percent of the national vote to make it into the legislature have called for a recount. One, the pro-Russian Vitrenko Popular Opposition Bloc that just missed getting into the chamber with 2.93 percent, has set up dozens of tents in front of the central election commission in Kiev in protest.
Ukraine's outgoing parliament will continue to sit until newly-elected deputies gather for their first session, which by law must take place within 30 days after the publication of official results of the March 26 ballot.